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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Buffalo Bills 4th & 3 at the 51

Buffalo Bills 7 – Atlanta Falcons 21

What Actually Happened

(8:21) 19-M.Wishnowsky punts 46 yards to ATL 5, impetus ends at ATL 1, Center-69-R.Ferguson, downed by BUF-42-D.Williams.

The Three Options

GO +0.25 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.63 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 51, worth -2.85 EP
KICK -1.41 EP
  • 35% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.31 EP
  • 65% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 49, worth -2.85 EP
PUNT -0.80 EP
What Happened
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 14, worth -0.80 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.05 EP