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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 11 at the 11

Tennessee Titans 19 – Arizona Cardinals 21

What Actually Happened

(:03) 6-J.Slye 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-3-J.Hekker.

The Three Options

GO +1.83 EP
  • 26% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.93 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 11, worth +0.05 EP
KICK +2.89 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.98 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 22, worth +0.02 EP
PUNT +0.05 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth +0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model