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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 8 at the 65

Arizona Cardinals 21 – Tennessee Titans 19

What Actually Happened

(2:00) 12-B.Gillikin punts 47 yards to TEN 18, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 17-C.Dike.

The Three Options

GO -1.02 EP
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +1.20 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 65, worth -2.67 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -0.72 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 23, worth -0.72 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model