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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tennessee Titans 4th & 4 at the 57

Tennessee Titans 6 – Arizona Cardinals 21

What Actually Happened

(:55) 3-J.Hekker punts 50 yards to ARI 7, impetus ends at ARI 2, Center-46-M.Cox, downed by TEN-54-D.Mausi.

The Three Options

GO -0.46 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.49 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 57, worth -3.05 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -0.82 EP
What Happened
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 17, worth -0.82 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.37 EP