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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tennessee Titans 4th & 10 at the 40

Tennessee Titans 6 – Arizona Cardinals 21

What Actually Happened

(:54) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward sacked at TEN 48 for -12 yards (10-J.Sweat).

The Three Options

GO -0.12 EP
What Happened
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +3.54 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 40, worth -1.70 EP
KICK +0.25 EP
Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.81 EP
  • 38% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 49, worth -2.32 EP
PUNT -0.02 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.36 EP