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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 18 at the 97

Arizona Cardinals 21 – Tennessee Titans 6

What Actually Happened

(1:40) 12-B.Gillikin punts 60 yards to TEN 37, Center-46-A.Brewer. 17-C.Dike to TEN 49 for 12 yards (81-T.Vokolek).

The Three Options

GO -3.64 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 79, worth +0.93 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 97, worth -5.96 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (114 yards).

PUNT -2.55 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 53, worth -2.55 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model