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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 1 at the 65

Arizona Cardinals 14 – Tennessee Titans 3

What Actually Happened

(12:32) 12-B.Gillikin punts 39 yards to TEN 26, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 17-C.Dike.

The Three Options

GO +0.57 EP
Model's Pick
  • 75% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +1.92 EP
  • 25% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 65, worth -3.54 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -0.90 EP
What Happened
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 23, worth -0.90 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.46 EP