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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tennessee Titans 4th & 11 at the 63

Tennessee Titans 3 – Arizona Cardinals 14

What Actually Happened

(14:06) 3-J.Hekker punts 43 yards to ARI 20, Center-46-M.Cox. 4-G.Dortch to ARI 26 for 6 yards (52-J.Williams).

The Three Options

GO -1.65 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.55 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 63, worth -3.58 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

PUNT -0.80 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 21, worth -0.80 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model