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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 4 at the 18

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3 – Seattle Seahawks 0

What Actually Happened

(14:11) 4-C.McLaughlin 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

The Three Options

GO +1.75 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +4.87 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 18, worth -0.91 EP
KICK +1.13 EP
What Happened
  • 93% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.33 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 28, worth -1.59 EP
PUNT -0.27 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -0.27 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.62 EP