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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 17 at the 41

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 28 – Seattle Seahawks 28

What Actually Happened

(7:28) 9-R.Dixon punts 40 yards to SEA 1, Center-86-E.Deckers, downed by TB-32-J.Hayes.

The Three Options

GO -0.25 EP
Model's Pick
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.38 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 41, worth -1.92 EP
KICK -0.30 EP
  • 53% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.58 EP
  • 47% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 49, worth -2.45 EP
PUNT -0.49 EP
What Happened
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 12, worth -0.49 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model