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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 1 at the 50

San Francisco 49ers 7 – Los Angeles Rams 0

What Actually Happened

(4:19) 10-M.Jones up the middle to LA 48 for 2 yards (95-P.Ford).

The Three Options

GO +0.91 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.55 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 50, worth -3.02 EP
KICK -1.43 EP
  • 37% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.29 EP
  • 63% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 49, worth -3.02 EP
PUNT -0.81 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 14, worth -0.81 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model