Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 8 at the 97

San Francisco 49ers 23 – Los Angeles Rams 20

What Actually Happened

(:53) 7-T.Morstead punts 50 yards to LA 47, Center-46-J.Weeks. 19-X.Smith pushed ob at SF 37 for 16 yards (33-S.Neal). PENALTY on LA-25-T.Brown, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at SF 40.

The Three Options

GO -2.95 EP

43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 89, worth +0.04 EP
57% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 97, worth -5.19 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (114 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model