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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 8 at the 63

San Francisco 49ers 20 – Los Angeles Rams 20

What Actually Happened

(9:19) 7-T.Morstead punts 35 yards to LA 28, Center-46-J.Weeks. 19-X.Smith to LA 30 for 2 yards (59-C.Robinson; 57-L.Gifford).

The Three Options

GO -1.55 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +1.80 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 63, worth -3.65 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

PUNT -1.38 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 21, worth -1.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model