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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 4 at the 56

San Francisco 49ers 20 – Los Angeles Rams 14

What Actually Happened

(14:15) 7-T.Morstead punts 50 yards to LA 6, Center-46-J.Weeks. 19-X.Smith to LA 12 for 6 yards (31-I.Guerendo).

The Three Options

GO -0.87 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.10 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 56, worth -3.74 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -1.57 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 17, worth -1.57 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.70 EP