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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 6 at the 35

Los Angeles Rams 7 – San Francisco 49ers 17

What Actually Happened

(12:51) 16-J.Karty 53 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-42-E.Evans.

The Three Options

GO +0.74 EP
Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +4.15 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 35, worth -1.64 EP
KICK +0.58 EP
What Happened
  • 73% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.64 EP
  • 27% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 45, worth -2.33 EP
PUNT -0.10 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model