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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q2
Los Angeles Rams
4th & 1 at the 41
Los Angeles Rams 0 – San Francisco 49ers 14
What Actually Happened
(10:11) 23-K.Williams up the middle to SF 37 for 4 yards (91-S.Okuayinonu).
The Three Options
GO
+1.97 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.49 EP
- 29% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 41, worth -1.74 EP
KICK
+0.10 EP
- 60% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.88 EP
- 40% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.53 EP
PUNT
-0.07 EP
- San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.07 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
