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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 5 at the 40

New Orleans Saints 26 – New York Giants 14

What Actually Happened

(4:12) (Shotgun) 2-S.Rattler pass short middle to 22-R.Shaheed to NYG 32 for 8 yards (2-D.Banks).

The Three Options

GO +0.28 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +2.80 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 40, worth -1.59 EP
KICK +0.27 EP
  • 62% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.70 EP
  • 38% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 49, worth -2.07 EP
PUNT -0.44 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth -0.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model