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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 3 at the 57

New York Giants 14 – New Orleans Saints 26

What Actually Happened

(5:53) (Shotgun) 6-J.Dart scrambles up the middle to NYG 49 for 6 yards (56-D.Davis).

The Three Options

GO +0.05 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.30 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 57, worth -2.69 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -0.32 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 17, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model