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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 1 at the 68

New Orleans Saints 26 – New York Giants 14

What Actually Happened

(6:37) 32-K.Kroeger punts 32 yards to NYG 36, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 80-G.Olszewski.

The Three Options

GO -0.07 EP
Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +1.39 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 68, worth -3.81 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -1.33 EP
What Happened
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 26, worth -1.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.27 EP