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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 6 at the 38

New York Giants 14 – New Orleans Saints 26

What Actually Happened

(10:06) (Shotgun) 6-J.Dart pass deep right intended for 13-J.Hyatt INTERCEPTED by 4-K.McKinstry [20-P.Werner] at NO 5. 4-K.McKinstry pushed ob at NO 5 for no gain (13-J.Hyatt).

The Three Options

GO +0.49 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +3.81 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 38, worth -1.81 EP
KICK +0.32 EP
  • 67% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.72 EP
  • 33% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 47, worth -2.49 EP
PUNT -0.22 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth -0.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model