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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New Orleans Saints 4th & 9 at the 9

New Orleans Saints 16 – New York Giants 14

What Actually Happened

(6:57) 19-B.Grupe 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-32-K.Kroeger.

The Three Options

GO +1.79 EP
Model's Pick
  • 30% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.66 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 9, worth +0.15 EP
KICK +1.64 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 26-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.70 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 21, worth -0.64 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model