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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New Orleans Saints 4th & 11 at the 34

New Orleans Saints 13 – New York Giants 14

What Actually Happened

(1:30) 19-B.Grupe 52 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-32-K.Kroeger.

The Three Options

GO +0.34 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +4.43 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 34, worth -1.39 EP
KICK +0.75 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 75% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.72 EP
  • 25% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 44, worth -2.18 EP
PUNT -0.21 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth -0.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model