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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New Orleans Saints 4th & 12 at the 35

New Orleans Saints 3 – New York Giants 14

What Actually Happened

(7:46) 19-B.Grupe 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-32-K.Kroeger.

The Three Options

GO +0.10 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +4.51 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 35, worth -1.67 EP
KICK +0.52 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.51 EP
  • 27% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 45, worth -2.18 EP
PUNT -0.45 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth -0.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model