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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Miami Dolphins 4th & 5 at the 40

Miami Dolphins 3 – Carolina Panthers 0

What Actually Happened

(3:12) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short left to 83-D.Waller pushed ob at CAR 34 for 6 yards (7-T.Moehrig).

The Three Options

GO +0.21 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.48 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 40, worth -2.37 EP
KICK -0.62 EP
  • 56% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.28 EP
  • 44% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 49, worth -3.03 EP
PUNT -0.51 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model