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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 17 at the 85

Miami Dolphins 24 – Carolina Panthers 27

What Actually Happened

(1:10) 16-J.Bailey punts 58 yards to CAR 27, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 20-D.Dallas.

The Three Options

GO -2.63 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +0.72 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 85, worth -4.09 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

PUNT -1.28 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 43, worth -1.28 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model