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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 6 at the 71

Carolina Panthers 13 – Miami Dolphins 17

What Actually Happened

(12:33) 6-S.Martin punts 61 yards to MIA 10, Center-44-J.Jansen. 6-M.Washington to MIA 25 for 15 yards (20-D.Dallas).

The Three Options

GO -1.43 EP
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.70 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 71, worth -4.01 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.22 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 29, worth -1.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model