Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 7 at the 63

Miami Dolphins 17 – Carolina Panthers 13

What Actually Happened

(13:29) 16-J.Bailey punts 43 yards to CAR 20, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 20-D.Dallas. PENALTY on MIA-27-E.Bonner, Illegal Formation, 5 yards, enforced at CAR 20.

The Three Options

GO -1.16 EP

41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +2.19 EP
59% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 63, worth -3.53 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model