Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Miami Dolphins 4th & 8 at the 63

Miami Dolphins 17 – Carolina Panthers 13

(4:39) 16-J.Bailey punts 61 yards to CAR 2, Center-49-J.Cardona, downed by MIA-49-J.Cardona.

The Three Options

GO -1.33 EP

39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.20 EP
61% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 63, worth -3.60 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model