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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 5 at the 48

Carolina Panthers 0 – Miami Dolphins 17

What Actually Happened

(6:57) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass deep right to 4-T.McMillan ran ob at MIA 27 for 21 yards [15-Ja.Phillips].

The Three Options

GO +0.07 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +3.21 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 48, worth -2.52 EP
KICK -1.12 EP
  • 35% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.60 EP
  • 65% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 49, worth -2.56 EP
PUNT -0.51 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 14, worth -0.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model