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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 19 at the 19

Las Vegas Raiders 3 – Indianapolis Colts 40

What Actually Happened

(11:43) 8-D.Carlson 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole.

The Three Options

GO +0.44 EP
  • 21% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.51 EP
  • 79% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 19, worth -0.89 EP
KICK +1.35 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.55 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 29, worth -1.44 EP
PUNT -0.30 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth -0.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model