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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 1 at the 30

Las Vegas Raiders 3 – Indianapolis Colts 40

What Actually Happened

(14:16) 7-G.Smith pass short left to 86-A.Okwuegbunam to IND 23 for 7 yards (20-N.Cross).

The Three Options

GO +2.24 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +4.01 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 30, worth -1.41 EP
KICK +0.92 EP
  • 82% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.57 EP
  • 18% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 40, worth -2.06 EP
PUNT -0.13 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth -0.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model