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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 8 at the 62

Las Vegas Raiders 3 – Indianapolis Colts 20

What Actually Happened

(13:06) 8-D.Carlson punts 30 yards to IND 32, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.23 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.63 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 62, worth -3.53 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT -0.96 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 21, worth -0.96 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model