4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 1 at the 62

Indianapolis Colts 0 – Las Vegas Raiders 0

What Actually Happened

(13:23) 8-R.Sanchez punts 56 yards to LV 6, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 81-A.Bachman to LV 14 for 8 yards (25-R.Thomas).

The Three Options

GO +1.06 EP
Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +2.65 EP
  • 27% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 62, worth -3.23 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT -0.38 EP
What Happened
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 21, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.44 EP