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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 17 at the 64

Las Vegas Raiders 3 – Indianapolis Colts 7

What Actually Happened

(9:38) 6-A.Cole punt is BLOCKED by 50-S.Olubi, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, recovered by LV-80-I.Thomas at LV 8.

The Three Options

GO -2.01 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +2.83 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 64, worth -3.76 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -1.25 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 22, worth -1.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model