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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 3 at the 65

Cincinnati Bengals 3 – Detroit Lions 21

What Actually Happened

(10:03) 8-R.Rehkow punts 65 yards to end zone, Center-46-W.Wagner, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.56 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +2.12 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 65, worth -3.71 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -0.71 EP
What Happened
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 23, worth -0.71 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model