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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 6 at the 41

Detroit Lions 14 – Cincinnati Bengals 0

What Actually Happened

(3:54) 3-J.Fox punts 33 yards to CIN 8, Center-49-H.Hatten, fair catch by 15-C.Jones.

The Three Options

GO +0.27 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.36 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 41, worth -2.14 EP
KICK -0.61 EP
  • 54% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.27 EP
  • 46% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 49, worth -2.82 EP
PUNT -0.77 EP
What Happened
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 12, worth -0.77 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.04 EP