4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 14 at the 18

Denver Broncos 18 – Philadelphia Eagles 17

What Actually Happened

(1:14) 3-W.Lutz 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-16-J.Crawshaw.

The Three Options

GO +0.84 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +4.24 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 18, worth -0.35 EP
KICK +2.19 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.38 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 28, worth -0.56 EP
PUNT -0.21 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model