Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 16 at the 78

Philadelphia Eagles 17 – Denver Broncos 10

(11:22) 10-B.Mann punts 49 yards to DEN 29, Center-57-C.Adomitis. 19-M.Mims to DEN 28 for -1 yards (36-C.Latu).

The Three Options

GO -2.25 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +2.10 EP
69% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 78, worth -4.18 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model