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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Denver Broncos 4th & 2 at the 72

Denver Broncos 3 – Philadelphia Eagles 17

What Actually Happened

(3:52) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 43 yards to PHI 29, Center-48-M.Fraboni. 2-J.Dotson to PHI 44 for 15 yards (34-J.Skinner).

The Three Options

GO -1.05 EP
Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +0.87 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 72, worth -4.39 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.70 EP
What Happened
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 30, worth -1.70 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.65 EP