4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 6 at the 68

Philadelphia Eagles 17 – Denver Broncos 3

What Actually Happened

(5:26) 10-B.Mann punts 68 yards to end zone, Center-57-C.Adomitis, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -1.02 EP
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +2.17 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 68, worth -3.62 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -0.47 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 26, worth -0.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model