Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 13 at the 59

Denver Broncos 3 – Philadelphia Eagles 10

(:15) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 54 yards to PHI 5, Center-48-M.Fraboni, fair catch by 2-J.Dotson.

The Three Options

GO -0.79 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +1.39 EP
69% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 59, worth -1.79 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model