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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 6 at the 85

Philadelphia Eagles 10 – Denver Broncos 3

What Actually Happened

(1:02) 10-B.Mann punts 45 yards to DEN 40, Center-57-C.Adomitis. 19-M.Mims to DEN 44 for 4 yards (37-T.Bigsby; 36-C.Latu).

The Three Options

GO -2.21 EP
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 79, worth +0.54 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 85, worth -4.67 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

PUNT -1.67 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 43, worth -1.67 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model