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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 7 at the 77

Philadelphia Eagles 0 – Denver Broncos 0

What Actually Happened

(12:22) 10-B.Mann punts 69 yards to DEN 8, Center-57-C.Adomitis. 19-M.Mims ran ob at DEN 31 for 23 yards (83-K.Granson).

The Three Options

GO -1.61 EP
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.90 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 77, worth -4.32 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

PUNT -1.29 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 34, worth -1.29 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model