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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 5 at the 59

Denver Broncos 3 – Philadelphia Eagles 10

What Actually Happened

(1:26) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 48 yards to PHI 11, Center-48-M.Fraboni, fair catch by 2-J.Dotson.

The Three Options

GO -0.58 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.35 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 59, worth -3.15 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.82 EP
What Happened
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 18, worth -0.82 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model