4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 15 at the 53

Philadelphia Eagles 10 – Denver Broncos 3

What Actually Happened

(2:27) 10-B.Mann punts 53 yards to end zone, Center-57-C.Adomitis, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.93 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.49 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 53, worth -2.72 EP
KICK -1.59 EP
  • 25% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.30 EP
  • 75% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 49, worth -2.57 EP
PUNT -0.68 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 15, worth -0.68 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model