Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 8 at the 64

Denver Broncos 3 – Philadelphia Eagles 10

(4:58) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 50 yards to PHI 14, Center-48-M.Fraboni, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.33 EP

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +2.24 EP
60% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 64, worth -3.66 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model