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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Denver Broncos 4th & 4 at the 63

Denver Broncos 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 0

What Actually Happened

(13:30) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 63 yards to end zone, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -1.00 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +1.85 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 63, worth -3.97 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

PUNT -1.39 EP
What Happened
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 21, worth -1.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.38 EP