4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 4 at the 66

Houston Texans 26 – Tennessee Titans 0

What Actually Happened

(2:00) 6-T.Townsend punts 64 yards to TEN 2, Center-40-A.Brinkman, downed by HOU-11-T.Smith.

The Three Options

GO -0.64 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +1.45 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 66, worth -2.79 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -0.84 EP
What Happened
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 24, worth -0.84 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model