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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 2 at the 78

Tennessee Titans 0 – Houston Texans 26

What Actually Happened

(4:04) 3-J.Hekker punts 50 yards to HOU 28, Center-46-M.Cox. 14-J.Noel to HOU 28 for no gain (26-M.Harris).

The Three Options

GO -1.19 EP
Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 76, worth +0.76 EP
  • 39% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 78, worth -4.23 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

PUNT -1.22 EP
What Happened
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 35, worth -1.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model