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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tennessee Titans 4th & 5 at the 23

Tennessee Titans 0 – Houston Texans 0

What Actually Happened

(11:44) 6-J.Slye 41 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-3-J.Hekker.

The Three Options

GO +1.02 EP
Model's Pick
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +4.67 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 23, worth -1.27 EP
KICK +0.83 EP
What Happened
  • 90% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.14 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 33, worth -2.08 EP
PUNT -0.44 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model